The Importance of Prevention in Tackling Desertification: An Approach to Anticipate Risks of Degradation in Coastal Aquifers

Groundwater degradation is a major issue on an increasingly hot and thirsty planet. The problem critical in drylands, where recharge rates are low groundwater the only reliable resource context of water scarcity stress. Aquifer depletion contamination process desertification. Land Degradation Neutrality regarded as main initiative to tackle land It embedded target 15.3 Sustainable Development Goals focused preventing these dynamics. Within this framework, we present approach assess risks desertification coastal basins with aquifers threatened by seawater intrusion. utilizes integrated system dynamics model representing relationships between aquifer intensively irrigated area (greenhouses) driven short- medium-term profitability. study located semi-arid region Southern Spain, Gualchos stream basin, which contains Castell de Ferro aquifer. We found that risk salinization 73%, while there 70% would increases its demand for surface future, chance doubling current almost 50%. If reservoirs were not able satisfy such increase because climate change, basin be at serious